Getting the timing of the market right is the holy grail of property investment. Some people seem to have a knack at buying low and selling high. For us mere mortals, what does that mean and how can we possibly predict, the timing of the property market?
First, let us better understand the property cycle. A property cycle is best imagined in the form of a clock. 12 is the peak of the market and 6 is the bottom. It stands to reason that 6 being the bottom of the market is the best time to invest in property. That’s kind of true but not quite, so let’s unpack it a bit more. Between 12 and 3 is considered to be the ‘Correction Phase’ of the market. Both the amount of property on the market and the over-inflated prices achieved in the ‘Growth Phase’ undergo a period of correction.
Between 3 and 6 the property market goes into decline. This is partly due to the fact that often the property and share markets are counter-cyclical, so when the property market corrects, many investors put their funds into the stock market. Also, all markets thrive on confidence and after a few years of correction, confidence also declines.
Between 6 and 9 the market starts to recover and is predictably described as the ‘recovery phase’. This happens when investors are more confidently coming back into the property market. The oversupply of property, in particular, apartments has been ‘corrected’, and it’s more affordable. The areas that show the greatest signs of recovery are the ones that have announced infrastructure projects that promise new jobs. They are capital cities or significant regional areas that show strong population growth. New jobs drive population, and population drives demand. 6 is often described as the bottom of the market but also the opportunity marker. I often say that this is true, however, we don’t know that we’re at 6 until we’re at 7. If you research recent property markets that aren’t doing very well, such as Darwin and Perth, they’ve been stuck between 5 and 6 for years. Until they show strong signs of recovery with the property fundamentals to support future growth, they’re not markets to consider investing in. Until these markets have started to show clear signs of recovery, ie: the market being at 7 or 8, it’s difficult to feel confident in your investment.
No matter what number the market is at in the Recovery Phase,( 6, 7 or 8), between 9 and12 is the ‘growth phase’ and just like it sounds, this is when demand is growing and when you will make the most amount of money from your investment property, in the first cycle. Confidence is strong and there is much greater demand than supply, so prices sky-rocket. This is also described as a ‘seller’s market’.
All of this is only relevant for the first cycle, but it’s critical. If you don’t get this part right, then you will risk losing your property before you’re able to enjoy the growth. If you do get this part right, then after the first property cycle which endures 7-12 years, depending on the area, you will have the cashflow to support your investment. After this cycle, compound interest will be doing the heavy lifting for you, in terms of capital growth. When you leave your money in the market for long enough, magic happens and is the reason both Albert Einstein and Warren Buffet describe it as the 8th wonder of the world.
When we make a property recommendation, we take into account many data points to get the timing of the market right. More research than the average investor has time to do or access to. Timing is the first part of the research and most important and is called the macro research. It is the Big Data that help predict the timing of the market – Economy, Employment, Population, Demographics, Infrastructure and Lending Policy. Once the timing is understood, there are more numbers the successful property investor needs to understand – the micro research or ‘the right property, in the right place’ as well as due diligence on the builders/developers in the area. If you know there is a lot of research necessary to consistently identify ‘the right property, in the right place at the right time’ but you either don’t have the time, energy or know-how to undertake it, turn to the property experts who do – Calla Property. This is all we do, all day, every day and the service we provide our investors doesn’t cost the investor anything. So what are you waiting for? Contact us through www.callaproperty.com.au
~Novel Serialisation: Heavens Fire~
